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因此,比特幣和股票交易存在相關性新聞| Cointelegraph

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本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一次投資和交易都涉及風險,您應該在做出決定時進行自己的研究。

看著比特幣圖,以及包括股票市場在內的股票圖道瓊斯和標準普爾500指數,你可能已經註意到了一個有趣的相似性。股票市場正在迅速增長到新的高度,甚至唐納德特朗普發表自己當選以來的增長率為20%。在這些高峰之前,比特幣也飆升至歷史最高點 12月17日$ 20,000。

那時兩個市場開始大跌,首先是比特幣,比特幣的價格穩穩下降至6000美元,然後才達到底線。股市下跌了很多,但這兩種模式看起來非常相似上週一找到一個樓層。道瓊斯工業平均指數看漲週一歷史最大單日跌幅,標準普爾500指數創下自2011年以來最糟糕的一天。然後問題開始出現,無論不同資產之間是否存在關聯。我們可以預測未來的舉措嗎?

股票發生了什麼?

為了確定是否存在相關性,需要解決股市下跌和投資者看似拋售的原因。 約翰F.瓦西克,行為金融學福布斯專欄作家列舉了股票崩盤的兩個原因。他認為,一般股票市場被高估了,並通過衡量耶魯大學經濟學教授羅伯特席勒(Robert Shiller) 以評估這一點。他補充說,波動已經返回, 期待VIX指數,這對於尋找比特幣相關性非常重要。

此外,利率正在上升,並且人們相信通貨膨脹可能會回歸。接下來發生什麼?根據彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員雅各布·科克加德(Jacob Kirkegaard)說,計算機(其中90%是股票交易的股票)輪流發行,計算出通脹率更高是不可避免的。

為什麼比特幣會下跌呢?

這些關於股市崩潰原因的解釋與為什麼假定比特幣下降近70%的原因截然不同。比特幣的問題如下一旦達到2萬美元,預計會出現調整,因為媒體報導出現了一系列破壞性的報導,其中一些報導是毫無根據的,而且根本不正確。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Looking at the Bitcoin graph, and that of the stock market, including the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, you may have noted an interesting similarity. The stock market was growing to new heights rapidly, with even Donald Trump tweeting how it had risen 20 percent since his election. A little before these heights, Bitcoin had also surged up to its all-time high of $20,000 on Dec. 17.

Both markets then started to plunge, first, it was Bitcoin, whose price steadily dropped towards $6,000 before hitting a floor. The stock market fell a lot quicker, but the pattern looked remarkably similar, with them both finding a floor last Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its biggest one-day point drop in history on Monday, and the S&P 500 had its worst day since 2011. Questions then started to spring up whether or not there was a correlation between the vastly different assets. And can we predict the future moves?

What happened to the Stock?

To determine if there is a correlation, one needs to address the reasons why the stock market is down and investors are seemingly selling off. John F. Wasik, behavioral finance Forbes columnist lists a couple of reasons why the Stocks have crashed. He believes that the general stock market was overpriced, and uses a gauge by Robert Shiller, a Yale economics professor, to assess that. He adds that volatility has returned, looking to the VIX index, and this is important in looking for the Bitcoin correlation.

Furthermore, interest rates are rising and there is a belief that inflation may be on its way back. What happens next? According to Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the computers (which make 90 percent of deals on the stock market) make their turn, calculating that even higher inflation is inevitable.

And why Bitcoin took a dip

These explanations as to why the stock market crashed are vastly different to the reasons why it was assumed that Bitcoin fell by almost 70 percent. The problem for Bitcoin, following an expected correction once it hit $20,000, was that there was a stream of damaging media reports, some of them unfounded and simply incorrect.

The confusion firstly in South Korea about a potential ban did its damage before it was eventually cleared up by the South Korean Government. Then, China announced it would be putting one more nail into Bitcoin’s coffin within the country by placing a firewall up to restrict foreign access to exchanges. There was even news out of India that was flagrantly misinterpreted, also regarding a potential ban, that saw Bitcoin plummet.

From these external events, there is no discernible relationship as to why the Bitcoin market and the Stock market fell at the same time. But looking deeper in terms of correlation graphs, you can see some sort of link.

Z-scores and fear gauge

One area of data which seems to show a sort of correlation is in a matrix of z-scores and p-scores. These correlation graphs are quite confusing, but the just of it is that if two assets share a z-score that is negative or positive, there is evidence of either a direct or inverse relationship.

In the graph below, the numbers are called z-scores. They represent the direction and strength of the relationship between the two sets of data. A higher absolute z-score means greater correlation, while a lower absolute z-score means less of a correlation.  

A simple glance at this correlation graph can show that the relationship between Bitcoin and S&P 500 is at a weak positive relationship. But, the correlation between VIX and Bitcoin  -0.31 making it a moderate negative relationship.

The VIX is a so-called ‘fear


来源:https:cointelegraph.com


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